28 May 2010
What’s in your business future?
Being able to accurately forecast future events is incredibly valuable. Getting it right makes you a winner. It can reap you fame and fortune; it can even help you stop wars! Two thousand five hundred and ninety five years ago today, a canny piece of accurate predicting brought a fierce battle to a close and an end to a fifteen year old war. Thales of Miletus (a philosopher, engineer and mathematician) accurately predicted strange goings on in the sky and that day would turn into night. This obviously scared the pants off the protagonists as when his predicted solar eclipse actually happened they ceased fighting and anxiously agreed peace terms.
Shape events through expectations
Unlike a solar eclipse, we can shape events by our expectations of them. Indeed Thales motivation for forewarning one of the warring factions of the impending (entirely natural but incredibly spectacular) event was, (presumably), to help bring about an end to the long standing hostilities. If so, it worked.
It actually doesn’t take much to have people believe you. People are disappointingly predictable; match their expectations with a one element of ‘proof’ and they’ll use that to reference additional claims almost without question. For as long as you don’t obviously undermine this (probably misplaced) trust, then they will continue to accept your pronouncements and act on them as if they were true. One only has to watch a ‘Clairvoyant’ in action to see how this works. Typically they will cast around for some form of ‘evidence’ and then use artfully vague language to allow the audience to match up additional ‘proof’. Of course I’m not saying that all mediums and purveyors of other-worldly connections are charlatans (although without doubt many are), just that even those with deeply held convictions about their ‘gift’ still in practice use techniques like this to secure the belief of a follower.
Budgeting
Typically in smaller businesses the concept of predicting future business positions is paid only cursory attention. A basic budget and an indication of cash flow are probably the best that can be found in most cases. If we are to help shape a more positive and successful future then a detailed understanding of existing (and therefore future) business performance is essential. Thales of Miletus didn’t just guess that an eclipse might happen at that time, he used detail measurements of past eclipses and movements of the moon and sun to calculate his ‘best guess’ at when it might happen again. At that time he couldn’t be certain of being right, or even that an eclipse would repeat. But based on what had occurred and was still relevant (the sun, moon and stars all still appeared to be operating as normal), it was a pretty good guess.
The same is true for business predictions. Of course anything could change at any minute; but will it? And even if something did change, isn’t it possible to second-guess the effect that change might have? Of course it is! Hence starting with a simple spread sheet that details the times when and where your revenue is earned will be a great start. Then by building up a model of where costs are incurred and the patterns and frequencies between both, you’ll start to see ways in which to more accurately predict what might be to come (based on what you know to be true and has already been). The better you get at forecasting, the more effective your decision making around it will become. The more you see yourself to be right, the more others will believe in you (and as importantly, the more you will genuinely believe in yourself).
Your predictions may not prevent a war, but they could ensure a more prosperous and successful future for you and your business.
If you are a business owner who wants to thrive rather than survive, I recommend joining the ‘Business Success Strategies’ monthly audio coaching programme from BusinessCoaching.co.uk . They are offering £800 of FREE material just to take a RISK FREE trial. Take a look at http://tinyurl.com/yhh6zjb
27 May 2010
Are you in denial?
Was the Twin Towers attack a false flag exercise supported by rogue American industrialists determined to force the west into a war over the future of oil reserves? Are the reports of UFO’s a cover up for experimental aircraft by the military? Was the Swine Flu pandemic a hoax perpetrated by drug companies cleaning up on vaccine sales? Or is the human impact on Global Warming just a ruse to force ordinary people to change their behaviour and do as they are told?
Cynicism, denial and theories of conspiracy blight the world we live in
For every good idea and positive action there are an almost equal number of nay-sayers, deniers or conspiracy theorists who will take an opposing view. Some are deluded, some are actually mentally ill (unbalanced by lifestyle or genuinely unwell) and the rest see themselves as underdogs fighting a corrupt elite conspiring to get the better of ordinary people. Any situation where there is a perceived lack of solid evidence can become a breeding ground for denialists. As we are all creatures of habit, learning patterns of behaviour and then repeating them; if we’ve been caught up in a pattern of denial elsewhere then this same pattern can show up in our approach to business. I have no suggestions either way as to the real motivation behind the Twin Towers attack, UFO sightings, Flu pandemics or Climate Change theories but can report that six tactics have been identified that are common to all denialists. Martin McKee, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who also studies denial, has defined the following six tactics as being common to all conspiracy theorists in denial:
- They make an allegation about conspiracy. Their thoughts on the subject are predicated by the notion that ‘there must be another explanation’, or ‘all is not what it seems’.
- They use fake experts to support their story. Confirmation bias (the unconscious desire to find things that match with our previously held understanding) will lead them to ignore the evidence of experts that do not match with their own theory, and instead seek out those that do (even if their qualifications are suspect).
- They cherry-pick the evidence. Seeing only what they want to see means an unbalanced view is inevitable. As all human beings only have a limited number of ‘attention units’ at any time, this means that if their attention is filled with only one side of the story, then that story will become their reality. They will sincere in their belief even though it is based on spurious and unbalanced evidence.
- They create impossible standards for their opponents. Fairness is not a concept that’s relevant to denialists. In predictive situations the lack of any evidence is used to condemn ideas even though logically that is ridiculous. Then even when evidence is presented a denialist will typically move the goal posts and demand more.
- They use logical fallacies. They might claim that because Hitler opposed smoking, that anti-smoking proponents are Nazis. Warped logic can be presented as meaningful and believable.
- They manufacture doubt. Probably the most insidious tool in the arsenal of a denialist is the ability to sow seeds of doubt. Doubt creates inertia and can grind a positive intention into the dust. For example; Fred Panzers defence strategy for the tobacco industry in 1972 when he created doubt about the health charges against tobacco use without actually denying it. By suggesting the need for ‘objective scientific research’ he undermined the existing evidence and gave the impression of positive intent while really just creating doubt. Doubt that no doubt led to the unnecessary death and suffering of many smokers who were content to allow the ‘scientific debate’ to continue as they continued to smoke.
These six elements form a pattern
If you look hard enough you’ll find it all over the place from inside companies, families, communities and even whole countries:
When facing a crippling deficit there will be some who claim ‘conspiracy’; …the debts not real it’s all just a plan to keep the rich richer and the poor in their place… there are plenty of economists and commentators who claim that spending more is the only way to stimulate growth and that it’s more beneficial to create jobs even if the money has to be borrowed to pay for them…after all you still see people spending money; rich people are still rich and some areas continue to do well…and no one can be sure about what’s going to happen, it’s all guess work; there’s no evidence yet… there’s always been a boom after a bust so it will happen this time no matter what we do… could it be that the politicians are just using the situation for their own ends and what if things were not really as bad as they all keep saying?
What you are seeing is not an argument, it’s a pattern: A pattern of denial.
Personal denial
Unfortunately this pattern exists at a very personal level. When we are faced with something unfamiliar or new to us (it doesn’t have to be really new at all), then it’s possible for this pattern to unconsciously kick in. we can find ourselves rejecting what could be of great benefit for no other reason than we are running an unconscious programme of denial. This is never truer than when considering the potential of a business. Coaching for business improvement is a case in point:
Take every person who works for you and imagine them to have significantly more potential to help improve your business than they currently are displaying. Imagine then having the skill to help them recognise what it is that’s preventing them from reaching their potential, and then helping them find ways to overcome those barriers. Think of the difference that would make to your business. But here’s the problem. Because we are talking about ‘potential’ and as such that (by its very definition) is yet to be proved, then the denialist pattern can appear. Don’t let it. Stay open to possibility and use a better approach to improve your business.
There again coaching for significant business improvement could of course all be a conspiracy. I’ll let you decide!
If you are a business owner who wants to thrive rather than survive, I recommend joining the ‘Business Success Strategies’ monthly audio coaching programme from BusinessCoaching.co.uk . They are offering £800 of FREE material just to take a RISK FREE trial. Take a look at http://tinyurl.com/yhh6zjb
26 May 2010
Dutch escort agency seeks Geek Virgins for lessons in love
Apparently (and I say that because I don’t have first hand experience – honest) there’s now a Dutch escort agency specialising in servicing ‘Geek Virgins’. Clearly not of any interest to me as I’m neither an IT specialist nor in need of any hand holding in that particular area, but sociology student turned madam, Zoe Vialet (who set up the team of five girls to specialise in this area last year) clearly sees a defined market ready and waiting to take up their service offer. Of the inexperienced IT professionals she said "They are very sweet but are afraid of seeking contact with other people. They mean it very well but are very scared."
Becoming THE expert in a particular niche
The notion of focusing services into a defined market and then becoming THE specialists in that area is not a new one. In next to no time Zoe and her team mates have become the undisputed champions in the provision of sex services to Virgin Geeks in Holland. As a result she’s had oodles of publicity in both the local, national and international press; I heard about her while listening to a Seattle Country station morning show while pounding the treadmill in my local gym, (trust me, if there was a decent UK country radio station I’d listen to that but there isn’t so ‘100.7 The Wolf’ it has to be!). If she and her (no doubt) delightful group of young ladies had simply set themselves up as another agency they would have been unremarkable. They would have had to compete for business in the same way as all their competitors with nothing to make them stand out from the crowd.
A marketing strategy that works
However by choosing to ‘niche’ her operation Zoe has cleverly tapped into a marketing strategy that works. If she is clever (and I’ve no reason to doubt that) then she’ll be providing blogs and updates on her services and the positive feedback from delighted clients, stressing the specialist IT and Geek nature of their offer. She will talk to her customer base and ask them what particular words they might use to search for services like hers; what they are interested in and how she might link her offer to those and make it even easier to for more Geeks to find her. If it hasn’t happened already, it won’t be long before she will become known to that customer group; they will pass on her details to each other, reference her website and links to her services. They will in fact undertake her sales and marketing activity for her. All she needs to do is keep focused on providing the very best for them and they will reward her with as much business as she and the girls can handle.
You can't lose by niching
Here’s the great thing about an approach like this. Let’s say a non-Geek turns up to use her services and she has availability. Do you think he’ll be turned away? Of course not! Focusing on a niche and developing a niche doesn’t mean that other business is turned away; it simply means that all your effort to attract and service NEW business is targeted at a particular user group.
So look at your own business. If you have more business than you can cope with then this doesn’t apply to you, but if you don’t; are you trying to be all things to all people, or are you focusing on a very specific and defined customer group? You may have the skills to be a general practitioner but if you want anyone to trust you with a more detailed diagnosis then you’d better become a specialist. If you haven’t already got one, take a leaf out of Zoe’s book and get yourself a niche.
If you are a business owner who wants to thrive rather than survive, I recommend joining the ‘Business Success Strategies’ monthly audio coaching programme from BusinessCoaching.co.uk . They are offering £800 of FREE material just to take a RISK FREE trial. Take a look at http://tinyurl.com/yhh6zjb
First 1 2 Last